I have been reading through the Federalists and Anti-Federalists papers. (Hamilton, Alexander & Madison, James & Jay, John; 2011; The Federalist vs. Anti-Federalist Dispute: The Original Arguments For Each; Amazon Digital Services LLC; B005JMZ5RC)
Amazing how many predictions each side made. Federalists could not image that a President would venture too far from the center without being put in check by the legislature. Anti-Federalists could not image how states could survive if they were under the authority of a massive centralize government. Federalists were confident that any federal army would be small and only as large as was of use. Anti-Federalists proclaimed that there had never been a standing army that did not eventually overthrow the government. Many of their predictions proved false within twenty or thirty years. Yet, others may still be proved right.
I find it especially interesting to read the competing arguments from men who just a few years earlier had been solidly unified in their opposition to Britain. I previously knew that Jefferson and Adams had personal conflicts, but in these writings their names are used to bolster divisive positions that I wonder if they even supported.
I cannot count the number of times in my life when people have quoted a tidbit from one of patriots from the revolutionary war era as if all at that time were of a unified voice. They definitely were not. From reading these papers I am amazed that nearly eighty years elapsed between the end of the revolutionary war and the start of the civil war. Some of these authors make it sound like they were already on the verge of a great internal war not even ten years after the end of the revolution.
Their posturing, their virtual, their insinuations - all taking shots at each other through the newspapers - except Hamilton who eventually drew pistols to put action behind his words. The insinuations of ulterior motives sounds rather similar to what I hear today on the nightly news.
All of this transpired in a time when it might take a week for news to travel from New York to Charleston, and even longer to reach London and Paris. Imagine how heated the exchange might have been if they had access to a telegraph, telephone, or internet.
My primary conclusion - no matter how confident you are of your position, predicting the future is nearly impossible.